Analysis and Effectiveness of Flood Hazard-Based Settlement Prediction Models in Tegal Regency
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30659/jpsa.v23i1.47670Abstract
Annual flooding in Tegal Regency reflects a mismatch between settlement expansion and environmental vulnerability, particularly within high-risk flood zones. This issue requires predictive approaches capable of directing settlement growth adaptively. This study aims to develop a Cellular Automata (CA)–based settlement growth prediction model integrated with flood hazard maps and evaluate its effectiveness in supporting disaster-resilient spatial planning. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to determine settlement-driving factors based on expert interviews. The novelty of this research lies in the direct integration of flood-hazard zoning constraints into CA transition rules, combined with field-based sample-point validation to assess spatial accuracy. The model was simulated for 2023–2043 at five-year intervals. Results indicate that proximity to existing settlements is the dominant driver, while hazard-based zoning effectively restricts expansion into high-risk areas. Field validation confirms high model accuracy, reinforcing the reliability of the predictions. Overall, the integrated CA model provides a scientific and operational basis for local governments to guide settlement development toward safer zones and enhance the resilience of spatial planning.
Keywords: Disaster resilient spatial planning, land Cover simulation, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Banjir tahunan di Kabupaten Tegal menunjukkan adanya ketidaksesuaian perkembangan permukiman dengan kondisi kerentanan lingkungan, terutama pada kawasan rawan banjir. Permasalahan ini menuntut pendekatan prediktif yang mampu mengarahkan pertumbuhan permukiman secara adaptif. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model prediksi perkembangan permukiman berbasis Cellular Automata (CA) yang diintegrasikan dengan peta bahaya banjir, serta mengevaluasi efektivitasnya untuk mendukung penataan ruang yang berketahanan bencana. Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) digunakan untuk menentukan faktor pendorong perkembangan permukiman melalui wawancara pakar. Kebaruan penelitian terletak pada integrasi langsung antara kendala zonasi bahaya banjir dan proses transisi CA, yang dikombinasikan dengan validasi lapangan berbasis titik sampel untuk menilai kesesuaian spasial hasil simulasi. Model disimulasikan untuk periode 2023–2043 dengan interval lima tahunan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa kedekatan terhadap permukiman eksisting merupakan faktor dominan, sementara penerapan zonasi bahaya secara efektif membatasi ekspansi menuju area berisiko. Validasi lapangan mengonfirmasi akurasi tinggi model, memperkuat reliabilitas prediksi yang dihasilkan. Secara keseluruhan, model CA terintegrasi ini memberikan dasar ilmiah dan operasional bagi pemerintah daerah dalam mengarahkan perkembangan permukiman ke zona aman serta meningkatkan ketangguhan rencana tata ruang.
Kata Kunci: Perencanaan Tangguh Bencana, Simulasi Penggunaan Lahan, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
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